Confidence among CEOs has remained higher for a longer period

than at any other time in the past ten years, according to a survey of

1,541 small- to mid-sized business owners. The survey, which took

place from March 9 to March 18, 2015, provides a clear snapshot of

current economic, market and industry trends.

The Vistage Confidence Index was 105.8 in the 1st quarter of 2015,

between the 107.5 in the 4th quarter and 101.3 in the 1st quarter of

2014. The recent survey represented the eighth consecutive year-to-year

increase, a new record for the persistence of optimism. The small

1st quarter loss involved all components, although none registered a

significant decline. The stability in CEOs’ confidence stands in sharp

contrast to the slowdown in the pace of economic growth at yearend,

which has persisted into the 1st quarter of 2015. Confidence

in the underlying strength of the economy has been maintained

undiminished despite a number of factors: a harsh winter, a tightening

labor market, rising wage pressures, weakening export demand, and

a pending shift in Fed policy. To be sure, some of these trends reflect

the growing strength of the U.S. economy. Overall, firms anticipate

that the economy will continue to make substantial progress, with

a resurgence in growth as the year progresses.

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1q15 ceo conf info graph tjk

1q15 ceo confidence report

CEO Confidence index Feb 2015

A survey of 713 small business CEOs found that optimism among small

firms has remained virtually unchanged for the past four months, and

has been at its highest level since the survey began in June 2012. The

WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index was 115.5 in the

February 2015 survey. This reading is identical to January’s reading and

nearly equal to December’s 115.0 and November’s 115.6. The steadfast

optimism indicates that small business CEOs hold a deep sense of

confidence about prospects for the U.S. economy.

The small changes in the components of the Confidence Index pale

in comparison to the stability of optimism, which remains at record

high levels. This renewed sense of confidence has not wavered despite

uneven news on the domestic and global economies. Nor has it yielded

to weather-induced losses due to the harsh winter as it did last year.

Overall, the data indicate that small businesses expect a stronger

economy, and as a consequence, a tighter labor market during the year

ahead. This will result in continue upward pressures on wages as well as

draw more idled workers into the labor force.

3q14 small business confidence

3q14 small business confidence detail

Optimism among small firms in the September survey rose to its

second highest level since the survey first began in June of 2012. The

WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index was 110.8 in the

September 2014 survey, up from 109.8 in August and posting a 5.2%

gain from last year’s 105.3. The steady improving level of confidence in

recent months is certainly good news, but the more important finding

is that since the start of the year small firms never lost sight of the

underlying strength in the economy.

3q2014 Vistage CEO Confidence Index TJK

3q2014 Vistage CEO confidence index infographic

Confidence among CEOs reached its highest level in two years,

finally achieving a lift-off from its favorable holding pattern in the

last three quarters. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 103.4 in

the 3rd quarter 2014 survey, up from 101.0 in the 2nd quarter and

97.8 in last year’s 3rd quarter, and the highest level since 105.1 was

recorded in the 1st quarter of 2012. There is no greater indication

of confidence in future prospects than a firm’s willingness to

increase their fixed investment spending and to expand their

workforce. On both counts, firms reported the most expansive

plans since 2006.

Download the complete report here: 3q2013 Vistage CEO

Confidence Index